PRIMARIES FOR DUMMIES
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If you had told me in November that there would be a contested convention in the Republican nomination, I would have laughed at you. Now it truly seems like this will be a reality July 18 in Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.
A contested convention is when none of the candidates reach 1,237 delegates — the majority needed at the end of the election process. FiveThirtyEight’s expert panel projected that Donald Trump would end up with 1,208, sending this year’s convention into that scenario.
The rules of a contested convention can be confusing and can leave the door open for another candidate other than Trump to swoop in and win the nomination. At the convention, the delegates from each state will vote on the first ballot for the candidate whom citizens of their state voted for. If no candidate receives the 1,237 necessary to win the nomination, further rounds of voting will be done until one candidate wins the majority of the delegates.
Yet, as more ballots are cast, certain rules free the delegates to vote as they wish. Each state has different rules on the number of ballots it takes to free these delegates up; however, many of these will be able to vote for whomever they want after the second and third ballots.
The last time that a convention advanced past a first ballot was the 1952 Democratic convention, which chose Adlai Stevenson as its nominee, according to ABC News. There are many signs that this year’s convention could be just like the 1952 one, and these signs also look bad for Trump.
According to Politico, “Already more than a 100 delegates are poised to break with him (Trump) on a second ballot.” The reason for this is that many of these delegates are either party leaders or people who are actively involved in the state party workings. These people tend to be those who stand against Trump and his policies.
Another interesting factor in all the delegate maneuverings is that the delegates previously won by Trump could be up for grabs for other candidates because of technicalities. After Trump’s renunciation of the pledge signed by all the candidates stating that they would support whomever the eventual nominee would be, his 50 delegates in South Carolina became uncertain. The Nevada caucus won by Trump earlier this year could be another place where he loses delegates, as the shady voting process could be challenged.
All of this leaves the door open for Sen. Ted Cruz or any other candidate who could gain momentum on the convention floor. Cruz has come on strong of late with a solid finish in Utah and strong polling numbers in Wisconsin. It is conceivable that Cruz could ride the momentum of consecutive victories leading into the convention in Ohio and convince many of these delegates that he is the best candidate to face the Democratic nominee.
Yet others have stated that the nominee could be someone who has not run at all in this year’s election. Karl Rove, former senior advisor to President George W. Bush, said in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt that a “fresh face” could be a good thing for the party.
“A fresh face might be the thing that could give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary,” Rove said.
This seems improbable, but in a year where almost everything that has happened has defied logic and precedent, it cannot be ruled out.
Sutherland is the opinion editor.