Palsgrove’s Points
Here’s how this is going to work — the playoffs are coming up quickly for all five (!!!) of Liberty University’s hockey teams, and I want to give them all an honest appraisal of their chances going into the tournament. For simplicity’s sake, I’m going to assign each team their own odds as if I were a sports book. I know gambling is against the rules, and I’m not actually gambling in this article in any way, but I want to show the odds of each team’s chances to win it all, I’ll be using the same odds system as the sports gambling world.
For those who are unfamiliar, the lower the number, the more likely a thing is to happen.
For instance, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. is -450 to be the highest-drafted non-QB in the upcoming NFL draft. Xavier Worthy, who is a talented wideout from Texas but also no one to write home about, is +25,000 on the same bet.
Remember, these are all my honest opinions based on my research and having watched this hockey program all season. I’m going to factor in health, the strength of the opponent, past success, hot streaks and so on. This is not meant to offend anyone, and if it does, I hate to break it to you, but you’re soft.
Here we go.
Men’s
Division I: +800 — They have a real shot if they can play to their strengths.
The men’s D1 team has had a quality season, but if I know the coaches and the players — and I do — I would say that they’re not totally satisfied with a seventh-place ranking. They are entering the hardest tournament of all five of Liberty’s teams, and for them to win it, they will need all four lines to buy in and truly fight and claw their way to the top.
That sort of buy-in across the board has been lacking for the Flames. There are some replays you can watch where the Flames fail to even show the minimum amount of effort on the backcheck, and it leads to a good chance for the opposing attacker. That kind of lackadaisical approach isn’t going to be an option for the Flames in this tournament, given the level of competition they’re going up against.
Division II: +350 — Best way to win it all? Get hot at the right time.
The men’s D2 team isn’t at the same level as it was last year, but it might actually be better. Since the Flames returned to the ice in January, the team went an outstanding 9-3, with its three losses coming from Lindenwood, who has had a phenomenal 28-win season; Keene State, whom the Flames played in a back-to-back-to-back three-game New England road trip; and FGCU, who is ranked one spot ahead of the Flames in the ACHA’s Southeast Division.
They will have an uphill climb to reach the summit and claim the title, especially with how their tournament is shaping out. The way ACHA M2 works is it begins with a pool stage, where a four-team group plays each of the other teams in its pool and the best record advances. Liberty got thrown into pool C with three tough opponents, including Army, Providence and Lindenwood, and it’s the last one that will be the toughest. If they can get out of pool play — and that’s a big if — their odds get way better.
Division III: +650 — That last series might have been the push they needed to roll through nationals.
Men’s D3 ended its season with a series sweep, going 5-3 and 8-2 over Appalachian State to push its record to 13-6 and place third in the ACCHL standings. The team ranks behind Catholic University and High Point, the second of which it will be beginning with in the ACCHL playoff. The team is looking to bounce back after a soul-crushing loss last season, losing 5-4 in overtime to Coastal Carolina, whom the team is not the fondest of.
The Flames are hitting their stride, and their series win to wrap up the regular season — on senior night, no less — was a fantastic way to push them into the postseason. There are some kinks with the team that could be ironed out, mainly in personnel and playing time, but if the Flames figure it all out and play their best players, they have a real shot at winning the AAU natty in West Chester (which is my hometown, actually). They had a good look at the trophy last season but were crushed in the tournament’s pool play, losing to Fordham, South Carolina and Alabama.
This team isn’t the same team that lost in both tournaments last season, with the biggest change being the head coach. I’m curious how this one’s going to pan out.
Women’s
Division I: -550 — A genuine dynasty
The Lady Flames have had more losses in this season than in their last three seasons combined, and they only have five losses. This team is the definition of a dynasty, but this year hasn’t been at the same level of supreme dominance as the past five. They’ve shown signs of weakness at times and lost a few key players to graduation and injury, and yet the Lady Flames came away with the WMCH chip after sweeping the field over the weekend (go read that article for a recap).
They may look human for the first time in years, but these Flames are basically Thanos. They’re inevitable. Bet against them at your own peril.
Division II: +1000 — They have a shot because they made nationals, but it’ll take a miracle
There still is a chance that this team just misses a national’s berth, with the latest W2 rankings coming out very soon (they should have been out the evening of the 25th, and I am rather annoyed). The Lady Flames ended their season with a win and a tie against Lawrence Technological University and began their postseason with a loss to Maryland 1-0 in the first round of the DVCHC. Prior to the tournament, they were ranked fourth in the Southeastern Conference of the W2 ACHA rankings; and since the top five teams in the Southeast all head to St. Louis, they would have to drop from fourth to sixth in the rankings after their loss to Maryland, which might happen, but I’d be stunned.
After the Maryland game, the Lady Flames ended their season 11-7-2, which is about on par for this team. If they can make nationals, they have a chance, but so does everyone else, and it’ll take a big jump for the Flames to step above the rest.
Palsgrove is the asst. sports editor for the Liberty Champion. Follow him on X
