What if Republicans win?

Should the GOP take control of Congress, they should prioritize policies

Fifty. That is the number of states Nate Silver, an American statistician famous for his analysis of baseball and elections, predicted correctly in the 2012 United States Presidential election. In the 2008 presidential election, Silver predicted a measly 49 of 50 states correctly for then-Sen. Barack Obama, according to the New York Times.

Now the forecasting extraordinaire is focusing on the upcoming midterm elections, and his latest predictions show the Republicans having a 62 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. While his word is not gospel — but maybe as close as it can get — these statistics raise an interesting question for Republicans. Should the Grand Old Party assume control of Congress, what should their focus be?

Orrin Hatch, a Republican senator from Utah, had an answer for this question.

“We have an opportunity to present a positive, conservative, reform-oriented agenda that will show the American people that we are the party of solutions, the party that can bring our nation out of its current malaise and restore it to growth and prestige and prosperity,” Hatch stated in a speech at the Reagan Ranch Center in early October.

This new agenda can manifest itself in many ways, but there are three specific issues Republicans should focus on — tax reform, replacing Obamacare and a middle ground on immigration policy.

Tax Reform

Since the time of Barry Goldwater, modern Republicans have come to be identified as the party of lower taxes. Many times this strategy is used against them, as those opposed to the idea claim it is only used to protect wealthy friends and donors. To counter these attacks, Republicans must articulate and orchestrate tax reform that is shown to benefit all of society and to stimulate the economy. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida have already started reforms like this.

In an opinion article written in the Wall Street Journal, these Republican senators laid out their plan to create two income tax brackets, end the marriage penalty and increase the child tax credit.

The goal of this tax reform, according to Rubio and Lee, “isn’t simply growth, but freedom — clearing obstacles from each American’s unique pursuit of happiness.” Ideas like this one and others to come should be implemented to oppose the growing tax rates of the past six years and to enable the growth of American prosperity.

Obamacare Replacement

The health care policy that President Obama and other Democrats have put forward has struggled to get off the ground. From the initial problems of the Obamacare website to the broken promise that no Americans would lose their health care plan, many are hearing the warnings of Mitt Romney from the 2012 campaign in the back of their heads. Positive health care reform is desperately needed, and Republicans in the Senate have already made some proposals.

Hatch, along with senators Tom Coburn and Richard Burr, has put forward ideas that make a significant dent in the problem. Attacking the major deficiencies of the current health care system, this plan would “extend tax credit for the purchase of health insurance to all Americans below 300 percent of the poverty level who do not have health coverage from a large employer,” according to a National Review Online analysis of the plan. The purpose of this proposal would be to create a “competitive market” for health care coverage while incentivizing the public to have a health care plan without mandating it.

Immigration Middle Ground

In the wake of this summer’s mass migration of illegal immigrants into the country, immigration policy has been moved to the forefront of most politicians’ minds. While many on the right argue for a restrictive immigration policy, Reform Conservatives, like editor of National Affairs magazine Yuval Levin, push a more middle-of-the-road look at immigration. Levin, in an article on National Review Online, advocated a policy that would allow illegal immigrants legal residence in America without the option of citizenship and a favoring of “higher-skilled over lower skilled immigrants.”

The hope of this type of policy would be to address the “legal, cultural, economic and humanitarian concerns surrounding the status of illegal immigrants,” while counteracting the “persistent poverty and the daunting fiscal difficulties” many immigrants face. A middle-ground policy such as this should be advocated if Republicans take control of Congress.

Sutherland is an opinion writer.