Economic war with Iran a no-win situation

Setting an embargo against Iran is not the smartest way to oppose the country’s nuclear program

The fighting words escalate as Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reacts to the oil embargo placed on the country by the U.S.

Reuters reported that in a speech shown on state television, Khamenei promised that “Sanction will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course.”

“In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we have our own threats to impose at the right time,” Khamenei said, according to the Reuters report.

Fears concerning a possible nuclear weapons program in Iran have the U.S. and the European Union imposing an oil embargo on the nation. However, the crippling effects these embargos will have on Iran’s economy may only encourage weapon development.

The oil embargos on Iran are guaranteed to exasperate the country’s already dismal economy. Crude oil sales represent 80 percent of the nation’s export revenue and bring in the majority of its foreign currency, an important consideration since Iran’s currency — called the rial — against the dollar has lost more than half its value, a record low according to The Guardian’s article “Fears That Western Sanctions on Iran Could Cripple Local Economy.”

“The west never reacted to the regime’s gross violation of human rights with such measures, but for many of us who are fed up with the west’s double standards on countries with dubious nuclear policies, such pressure on Iran’s nuclear program is not comprehensible,” an Iranian lawyer based in Tehran said, according to the same article. “Even if Iran is not pursuing a weapons program, such sanctions will force it to do so in hopes of getting economic stability.”

Iranian leadership claims its nuclear program is intended to generate energy without the use of the oil supply it prefers to export. On the other hand, U.N. inspectors have amassed thousands of documents allegedly leaked out of Iran that indicate research is being conducted into technologies useful for testing and developing nuclear weapons.

The effects of the embargo will not just be limited to Iran, but are certain to boil over to become a detriment to the U.S. and Europe as well. The International Monetary Fund estimates that sanctions on Iran will result in a 20 to 30 percent increase in oil prices, pushing the price for a barrel up to $140, according to the article “Why the E.U.’s Oil Embargo Won’t Work” on tehrantimes.com.

Rising oil prices will further harm Europe’s already floundering economy and deal a sizable blow to the U.S.’s attempts to strengthen its own.

If history is any guide, crippling a nation’s economy will not result in lessening its potential for aggression. Consider the effect of the sanctions imposed by the Treaty of Versailles upon Germany after World War I. The German economy was torn apart by territorial concessions and reparation payments in the hopes that the country would never again start another war. Two decades later, Germany invaded Poland.

Iranian officials do not seem too worried. Indeed, news of the embargo may only have fanned the flames of their aggression.

Europe’s embargo does not become active until July 1. Iran has said that it may stop shipments of crude oil to Europe early in an attempt to hinder Europe’s search for supplies at similar costs in the short term, according to the tehrantimes.com article.

“This will have an impact on the whole Iranian economy but whether it will make the government change its policy, we don’t know…but probably not,” Tarja Cronberg, a European lawmaker in charge of the delegation for Iranian relations, said, according to the article “Oil Embargo Targets Iran Coffers” on upi.com.

The oil embargo on Iran is not only bad diplomacy, it is a potentially dangerous move of economic war. In all probability, it is a lose-lose situation.